Digital twins and process optimization

Mathematical models of process units and stages: regime forecasting, setpoint recommendations, optimization of energy consumption and reagent use. The effect is a 3–8% gain in process-stage efficiency with no capital expenditure. We work in operator-advisor mode — the model recommends, the operator decides — with read-only access to the historian and no intervention in the process control loop.

What problems it solves

Pain

Regime quality varies between shifts by 2–5% in target-product yield at the same feed rate

Solution

Real-time quality soft sensors plus a recommender model of optimal setpoints built on the historical “best shifts”

All shifts brought up to the best shift's regime: +0.5–1.5% yield

Pain

Energy and reagent overconsumption: regimes are chosen by procedure and experience rather than by the actual state of the process

Solution

A hybrid of a physical model and ML: a digital twin of the unit forecasts the process response to setpoint changes (what-if analysis)

−3–7% energy and reagent consumption

Pain

Full APC systems cost $1–3 million per unit and require months of step tests

Solution

Operator advisor (open-loop): recommendations on a separate screen, read-only access to the historian — no closed loop and no shutdowns

~80% of the APC effect at a fraction of the price, with no intervention in the control system

Pain

Waiting 4–8 hours for a laboratory analysis: the operator runs the unit “by yesterday's sample”

Solution

Soft sensors: real-time prediction of the quality parameter from process parameters

Control by actual values, not by a lagging laboratory

Pain

Heat-exchanger fouling: cleanings by the calendar, 1–3% of fuel consumption lost

Solution

Heat-transfer coefficient calculation + ML forecast of degradation + cleaning-schedule optimization

−10–20% fuel costs in feed-preheat sections

What data we work with

  • Process control system historian (PI, PHD) — 2–3 years of tags
  • Laboratory analyses (LIMS)
  • Process procedures and regime charts
  • Feedstock quality data

What the customer gets

  1. Shift-variability audit on a historian export — potential quantified in money
  2. Soft sensors for key quality parameters
  3. Operator advisor screen with setpoint recommendations
  4. A/B assessment of the effect across shifts over the pilot period

What a digital twin is in industry

It is not a 3D visualization of the plant but a working model of the process: a hybrid of physical equations and machine learning that answers in real time “what happens if we change this setpoint” and “which regime is optimal for the current feedstock”. On a typical process unit, regime quality varies between shifts by 2–5% — the twin brings every shift up to the level of the best one.

How the approach has been proven in Kazakhstan

Industry benchmarks are public. The “digital advisor” on a jigging machine at Donskoy GOK (ERG) cut chromium losses by 2.4% — about 123 million tenge (KZT) a year from a single machine. Samruk-Kazyna Ondeu in Stepnogorsk deployed a digital twin of its sulfuric acid plant with a 5–8% cost reduction. The combined effect of AI solutions across the ERG group in 2025 was 55.7 billion tenge. This is the same “advisor” architecture we build for customers without in-house IT teams.

How the solution works

  1. Data: 2–3 years of process control system historian data (PI, PHD, WinCC), laboratory analyses (LIMS), feedstock quality
  2. Models: quality soft sensors (gradient boosting/neural networks), a process-response model, a setpoint optimizer (Bayesian optimization / offline RL on historical “best regimes”)
  3. Operating mode: advisor — read-only connection to the historian, recommendations on a separate operator screen and in a report to the unit manager. A closed loop only as phase 2, at the customer's decision
  4. Deployment: on-premise. A read-only connection removes 90% of information-security and metrology objections

Why an advisor rather than full APC

Classical APC (Honeywell Profit Controller, AspenTech DMC3) costs $1–3 million per unit and requires months of step tests that disturb the process. An advisor built on historical data delivers 70–80% of the APC effect without step tests or shutdowns, in months rather than years — and applies to units where full APC is not economically justified.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

What chief engineers, security and procurement teams usually ask — with straight answers.

Next step

Request a shift-variability audit

Tell us about your task — we'll come back with a data audit plan and an effect estimate within two business days.

  1. 1A 30-minute call: the task, the data, who signs off on security
  2. 2Data audit or a retrospective analysis on an anonymised export
  3. 3An 8–12 week pilot with success criteria agreed before the start

NDA from the first contact

Reply within one business day